How to Calculate Forecast Error in Excel (MAPE & Bias)
A forecast you never score never improves. Forecast error turns “the forecast felt off” into a number you can act on, and two metrics
Plain-English breakdowns of margin, cash flow, inventory, and Amazon economics, written for the operators running the business.
Contribution margin, COGS, pricing, promos
13-week forecasting, CCC, burn & runway
Reorder points, forecasting, landed cost
Budget vs actual, models, scenarios
Margin, CAC, retention & ops benchmarks
Ratios, KPI packs, public-company teardowns
FBA fees, ACoS/TACoS, reconciliation
Ecom accounting, COGS, cash vs accrual
Starting, funding, valuation, finance terms
A forecast you never score never improves. Forecast error turns “the forecast felt off” into a number you can act on, and two metrics
Demand forecasting turns your sales history into a number you can plan around: how much to buy, when to reorder, and how much cash
Key takeaways All-in fulfillment costs about $8 to $15 per order in 2026: From roughly $10 for light apparel to $18-plus for heavy or
Average monthly subscription churn runs around 6.5–8.5%, but the number stays abstract until you turn it into time. At 5% monthly churn the average
Key takeaways The average ecommerce repeat purchase rate sits around 25–28% on a 12-month window in 2026, ranging from about 10% for furniture and
Key takeaways Across nine public direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands, gross margin runs from about 39% to 70%, with a median near 54% (fiscal 2025 filings,
Key takeaways A healthy blended MER runs 3–5x for most DTC brands in 2026, with mature subscription brands above 6x and early-stage brands often
Key takeaways Blended ecommerce CAC commonly runs $45–$90, but per-channel CAC ranges from near-zero on email to $120–$230 on fully-loaded paid social (as of
Key takeaways A healthy ecommerce net profit margin runs 8–12%; 10% is strong and 15% or more is exceptional, while the blended DTC median
Key takeaways Gross margin = (net sales − COGS) ÷ net sales × 100. Gross profit is the same figure in dollars. For ecommerce,
Key takeaways A bill of materials (BOM) is the component-level recipe for a product: every part, the quantity per unit, and its cost. BOM
Key takeaways The cash conversion cycle (CCC) is the number of days your cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers.
